Commercial wars, annexation threats: how Trump is changing the course of Canada’s elections

Only five months ago, a victory of the conservative party in Canada seemed safe.

Justin Trudeau, prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, was very unpopular, and the surveys showed the conservatives with what seemed an insurmountable advantage of 25 points.

Then the US voters. We went to the surveys. Donald Trump’s victory began to reverberate in Canada.

He imposed tariffs, including a 25% tax in Canadian goods; He said that China’s fentanyl was arriving in the United States From the northern border; and threatened Canadian sovereignty, saying that Canada should be state 51 and refer to Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau”.

Many Canadians got angry. Visits to the United States began to fall and some American products boycotted. Then, Trudeau resigned in March, and the liberals chose Mark Carney as his new leader.

The 25 -point leadership that the conservatives once had were eviscerated, and support for the liberals has grown.

Now, with an election scheduled for Monday, April 28, pollsters say that conservatives have lost too much ground to invent. Surveys predict a loss for conservatives and leaders Pierre Poilievre.

Canada has a parliamentary system. Therefore, if the liberals win most seats in the elections, or they can form a minority government with members of another party, Carney becomes prime minister.

Political experts and Canadians said Trump undoubtedly changed the course of the elections.

“There is no rebound for the Liberal Party if Donald Trump does not intervene in the way he does,” said ABC News, an assistant professor, an assistant professor of the Department of Political Sciences of the McGill University in Montreal.

“If Donald Trump had not won a second term, I do not believe that there is any hope for the liberals, regardless of whether or not they changed the leader at this time,” he said. “But once Trump won that second term, and once Trump tried to violate Canadian sovereignty, he changed the whole race.”

Trump Fractures Us-Canada Alliance

In early 2025, the Liberal Party faced a crisis. Trudeau, who had been prime minister since November 2015, had initially been “extremely popular,” according to Adam Chapnick, professor of defense studies at Canadian Forces College in Toronto.

However, I was plagued with impopularity in later years due to an intensive life crisis in Canada and minor scandals. Several of his cabinet ministers resigned in 2024 in the midst of lack of confidence in his leadership.

The Canadian law demanded Trudeau to call an election in October 2025, and his party seemed to get lost.

Frank Graves, a Canadian pollster and founder of Ekos Research Associates, told ABC News that in January 2025, things did not look good for the Liberal Party.

“The liberals reached modern 19 -point support. That is very little for the Liberal Party,” he said. “In fact, [that] It was a record for the twentieth century. At the same time, the conservative party was working at 44 points, with a massive advantage of 25 points, which would have been a safe majority. “

He continued: “It seems that conservatives are in a position to have beer and navigate to the finish line and get its majority.”

Already in December, only weeks after Trump won his second term, Trump made comments that Canada should become state 51 and referred to Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau”.

Although initially brushing by Canadian officials, Trump continued to float 51st state rhetoric and began the threats of imposing tariffs on Canada in January.

Trump also began to argue that the border between the United States and Canada is simply arbitrary.

Ajadi said that although Trudeau decided to resign as prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party, it still seemed that the liberals would lose regardless of who emerged as the next leader, but that was when Trump’s comments were launched.

“It still seemed that the liberals were dead in the water, regardless of who would enter as prime minister,” he said. “But when Donald Trump really began to expand this state rhetoric 51, when he threatened the tariffs and finally implemented the rates … he completely changed the way the surveys were going.”

Carney Gaia Support

At the beginning of March, the Liberal Party of Canada announced that Mark Carney was chosen to succeed Trudeau after the party members voted in a nomination contest between four candidates.

Carney, who was governor of the Bank of Canada, is attributed to help guide the country through the worst financial crisis of 2008 and, as a former governor of the Bank of England, helping to guide the United Kingdom through Brexit.

Ajadi said Carney has encountered voters as “incredibly capable and well educated” and as someone who can navigate the challenges raised by Trump’s rhetoric.

“He can say: ‘Look at my curriculum. I have been able to help countries navigate and have been able to negotiate things for two different countries of G7,” Ajadi said. “As, ‘I have this great experience and, no, I am not a politician, but I am someone who has been able to navigate in really controversial political conversations.”

This had led to a positive Net-22 qualification for Carney in the surveys, according to Graves.

Pailievre loses support

While Carney and Liberals have seen growing support, Pailievre and conservatives have seen decreasing support.

Although opposition leaders have tried to paint Poilievre as equivalent to Trump, political experts told ABC News that they have many policies that differ from Trump.

However, Pailievre’s rhetoric has been seen by Canadians as Trump style, as his hug of populist feelings and calling the opponents of nicknames, have said experts.

In addition, Graves said Pailievre fought to turn his campaign of a series of mantras on how “Canada is broken” to address Trump administration.

“It is difficult to abandon a strategy that has driven it to such a comfortable position in the surveys during the night, which is almost what was required,” said Graves.

Throughout February, the leadership of conservatives in the surveys began to evaporate, according to Graves. He said that at the end of February, the liberals achieved a solid advantage, which has since extended since Carney became prime minister.

Graves added that facing the US. UU. It is the biggest problem for Canadians, more than the cost of living. When the participants in the survey were asked who have more confidence, Carney had a significant advantage.

“Because he [Conservatives were] He still focused on the government, there was an opportunity for liberal leadership to take control of the narrative on how to respond to the president, and Mr. Carney did it, “said Chapnick.” And as Mr. Carney partnered with the leader who was going to prevent Canada from becoming the state 51 and the liberal support of the state shot up. “

Canadians are discouraged by Trump’s actions

Political experts said they noticed the anger that Canadians have to the United States following Trump’s rhetoric.

“The Canadians are trying not to travel to the United States,” said Chapnick. “They are trying not to buy American products. This idea that we can no longer trust the United States has led to some fairly significant changes.”

The airlines and state tourism boards said they have seen travel from Canada to the fall of the United States in February and March.

Canadian citizen Garry Liboiron told ABC News that he sees Pailievre as a “mini Trump”, who “will definitely play against him.”

Garry Libairon and his wife, Liz Liboiron, said that “the name of name and all children’s rhetoric” led them to sell their winter house in San Valley, Arizona, a place to which they generally retire when their hometown of Coburg, which is one hour east of Toronto, is stunned with snow in the winter months.

“It’s quite sad because we are not obliged to leave, but we almost feel that we are being pushed with the rhetoric that comes out of Washington these days towards the Canadians and Canada,” Liz Liboiron told ABC News.

The two are in their “farewell tour” of the United States, traveling to their favorite places for the last time, without any real indication that they ever return due to the “current circumstances” of the Trump administration.

“Liz and I do not understand how this is allowed to continue and the things that are happening seem to be increasingly scary as every day continues. Then, we said: ‘Let’s sell now,” said Garry Liboiron.

Garry Liboiron said he believes that Canadian elections will result in a victory of the liberal majority. He has noticed Carney’s popularity “[shoot] Like a rocket. “

The Canadian Cam Hayden, who has traveled to 45 of the 50 states and is a frequent visitor from the United States, also decided to boycott the nation shortly after the presidential elections.

When Trump made claims to annex Canada, it was a time when Hayden calls “the breakdown.”

“I said: ‘Forget it, I will never return until there is a change in the administration and a change of attitude,” Hayden told ABC News.

Hayden, the owner of the Edmonton Music Festival, used to travel to the United States to see different artists. He made many friends in the United States over the years, but said he cannot support the country with the current administration.

“I keep in touch with my friends [in the U.S.]And we are still good friends. It’s just that I can’t see myself supporting an administration that has made the comment they would like to attach the country in which I live, “said Hayden.

ABC News Victoria Beaule, Bill Hutchinson, Ivan Pereira and Sam Sweeney contributed to this report.